U.N. monitors leave Georgia, OSCE mission shuts

(MONITORS, MISSION, RUSSIA, AFTER, ABKHAZIA, SOUTH)

By Matt Robinson
TBILISI (Reuters) - United Nations monitors began pulling out of Georgia on Tuesday and the OSCE officially closed its observer mission, testing security almost a year since the former Soviet republic`s war with Russia.
A deadline for the OSCE to withdraw passed on Tuesday after negotiations with Russia broke down in May. The mission conducted its last patrol on Friday, and has already left its hillside headquarters in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi.
Russia rejected extending the mandates of some 130 U.N. monitors in breakaway Abkhazia and 20 monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who operated in rebel South Ossetia until last August`s war.
Moscow recognized the territories as independent states after crushing a Georgian assault on South Ossetia in a five-day war. Russia demanded separate monitoring missions for the regions, which Georgia said would violate its sovereignty.
Greek Foreign Minister and OSCE chair Dora Bakoyanni lamented the lack of consensus.
"As a result, one of the largest on-the-ground missions of the OSCE in the region was led to an end -- despite the clear need, recognized by many states taking part in it, for the organization to be present in order to contribute toward security and stability in the region."
In Abkhazia on Monday, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet said U.N. military and police monitors would start leaving on Tuesday and complete the withdrawal by July 15, a month after Russia vetoed a new mandate, Abkhaz media reported.
OIL AND GAS TRANSIT
A U.N. official who declined to be named confirmed around 20 monitors were leaving on Tuesday. "We`re moving them out in batches," he said. Full closure and the departure of several hundred civilian staff will take several more months.
The U.N. and OSCE missions deployed after Abkhazia and South Ossetia threw off Georgia`s rule in wars in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Their departure leaves the European Union alone with some 225 unarmed monitors deployed after last year`s war to monitor a fragile ceasefire.
The EU mission, however, has been denied access to either South Ossetia or Abkhazia and currently conducts patrols only as far as the de facto borders.
Analysts warn the mission has neither the access nor the means to prevent frequent incidents -- gunfire and bomb blasts -- escalating into full-blown clashes in an important transit region for oil and gas to the West.
Russia has kept thousands of soldiers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia since the war. Departing OSCE mission head Terhi Hakala warned last week of the risk of fresh conflict.
Tensions are again running high, with Russia this week conducting annual large-scale military exercises across parts of its southern regions bordering Georgia, condemned by Tbilisi as "pure provocation."
(Additional reporting by Harry Papachristou in Athens, editing by Mark Trevelyan)
Original article

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Iraq steps into precarious but sovereign unknown

(TROOPS, FORCES, MILITANT, SECURITY, THEIR, IRAQI)

By Michael Christie
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq takes a major step toward reasserting its sovereignty on Tuesday when U.S. combat troops hand urban areas over to its relatively untested police and soldiers.
Will the end of one aspect of the "surge" strategy -- the ramped-up deployment of U.S. forces in militant strongholds that helped drive al Qaeda and other fighters underground -- lead to a collapse in security?
WILL VIOLENCE SOAR?
It is highly likely that insurgents will increase their attacks following the departure of U.S. combat troops from city centers, both U.S. and Iraqi officials say.
Some militant groups may want to create the impression that they deserve the credit for driving out the occupation forces.
The fact that the partial withdrawal has been dictated by a bilateral security pact agreed last year between the United States and Iraq is immaterial to them.
Some of the insurgents may also think Iraq and its population will be more vulnerable once the Americans pull back to their bases, and that they have a better chance of reigniting widespread sectarian bloodshed through massive bombings.
There have been indications, however, that insurgent and militant groups have lost the capacity to keep up the momentum.
While the past month saw two of the deadliest bombings in more than a year, the overall number of incidents has plunged, and major attacks are followed by weeks of relative calm.
WHAT IS AT STAKE POLITICALLY?
If Iraqi security forces fail to protect the Iraqi people from escalating attacks, Shi`ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is likely to suffer politically.
He is staking his hopes for a second term after a parliamentary poll next January on his ability to claim credit for a sharp fall in violence over the past 18 months.
Maliki has called the withdrawal a great victory as Iraq tries to shake off stigma of occupation, and he has declared June 30, "National Sovereignty Day," a public holiday.
Analysts say he has essentially backed himself into a corner by exalting the occasion -- if violence soars it will be politically unpalatable to call on the U.S. military for help.
The prime minister`s stance may also dictate commanders` behavior on the ground. They may be loathe to call on U.S. troops or air cover, no matter how much it is needed, out of fear of being punished by their superiors for apparent weakness.  Continued...
Original article

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Iraq PM says forces can handle security without U.S.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq`s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said Saturday that the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraqi cities at the end of June showed Iraq can handle its own security, despite a wave of bombings this week.
The U.S. pullback from Iraq`s urban centers scheduled to be finished at the end of the month has been seen as a milestone on Iraq`s road to sovereignty after years of military occupation.
But a spate of bombings in the capital and in northern Iraq this week, including two of the bloodiest attacks in more than a year, have shaken the confidence of Iraqis in their own forces.
"We are on the threshold of a new phase that will bolster Iraq`s sovereignty," Maliki said. "It is a message to the world that we are now able to safeguard our security and administer our internal affairs."
Two big bombings in Baghdad and the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk this week killed more than 150 people between them. On Friday, a bomb killed at least 13 people at a market in Baghdad. A spattering of other bombs has also fueled apprehension.
U.S. and Iraqi officials have warned they expect the number of attacks to rise as the U.S. troops pull back, and also in the run-up to parliamentary elections next January.
"We have high trust in our security forces to administer security and pursue al-Qaeda remnants and criminal gangs," Maliki said.
He added that Iraq had achieved comparatively good levels of security, not just through better policing but efforts at political reconciliation between Iraq`s divided factions -- something his critics often accuse him of dragging his feet on.
"If they (militants) want to bring down the political process, we say, it won`t collapse, unless national unity is shaken," Maliki said.
(Reporting by Khalid al-Ansary; Writing by Tim Cocks)
Original article

OSCE makes last Georgia patrol, issues warning

By Matt Robinson
TBILISI (Reuters) - The OSCE`s mission in Georgia has warned of a new conflict over the breakaway region of South Ossetia with its monitors facing a deadline to leave next week.
Its 20 military monitors in Georgia conducted their final patrol up to the de facto border with South Ossetia on Friday before a June 30 deadline to pull out after 17 years.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe must withdraw after Russia opposed extending the current mandate having recognized South Ossetia as independent in the wake of last August`s war with Georgia.
A similar dispute over sovereignty saw Russia this month veto an extension to the mandate of some 130 U.N. observers in Abkhazia, Georgia`s other breakaway region also recognized by the Kremlin as independent.
The European Union, with 225 unarmed monitors deployed after the five-day war, stands to be alone in patrolling up to the de facto borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Authorities in both regions have forbidden them to go further.
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) thinktank warned this week of the risk of new "full-blown hostilities" in the absence of an "effective security regime in and around the conflict zones."
Asked about the warning, OSCE mission head Ambassador Terhi Hakala told Reuters this week: "Unfortunately I think it is possible. I share the analysis of the ICG."
"The situation is unstable. The security situation is a bit better but it is not good definitely."
"EYES AND EARS"
Russia crushed a Georgian assault on pro-Moscow South Ossetia, launched in early August after weeks of escalating skirmishes in the rebel territory, which like Abkhazia threw off Tbilisi`s rule in the early 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Eight OSCE monitors entered after the first war.
Moscow says the Georgia assault, which drew a devastating response from Russia, created "new realities" on the ground that the West should recognize.
"They (Russia) wanted to have an independent mission also in South Ossetia due to the fact that they recognized independence, and that`s why we are in this situation," Hakala said.
"Maybe there is this interpretation of course that they wouldn`t like to have extra eyes and ears on the ground," the Finnish diplomat said.
Greek Foreign Minister and OSCE chair Dora Bakoyanni told Reuters this week the OSCE still hoped for a deal to salvage the mission before Tuesday. But negotiations have already been halted. Hakala spoke in an improvised office in a Tbilisi hotel having moved out of the mission headquarters.
In white armored 4x4s, the monitors conducted their last patrol to the Georgian villages on the boundary on Friday, having been denied access to South Ossetia since the war.  Continued...
Original article

Netanyahu wants "maximum understanding" with U.S

By Jeffrey Heller
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he would strive for "maximum understanding" with Washington on peace issues but gave no sign he intends to bow to its demand to halt settlement expansion.
Under pressure from U.S. President Barack Obama over settlements in the occupied West Bank and Palestinian statehood, which Netanyahu has not endorsed, the Israeli leader said he would set out his policies in a major speech later this month.
"I want to make clear, it is our intention to achieve peace with the Palestinians and with the countries of the Arab world while attempting to reach maximum understanding with the United States and our friends in the world," Netanyahu said.
"I aspire to a stable peace based on the solid foundations of the security of the state of Israel and its citizens," he told his right-wing cabinet at its weekly meeting.
By mentioning security, Netanyahu again highlighted an issue he has called paramount to Israel's approach to peace with the Palestinians, whom he has said should have self-government but only limited powers of sovereignty.
In a speech on Thursday to Muslims in which he reaffirmed a U.S. commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state, Obama said Washington "does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements."
Despite the rare rift with the United States, Israel's main ally, Israeli officials said Netanyahu has no intention of risking the collapse of his coalition by ceasing all settlement activity in the West Bank.
Nabil Abu Rdainah, a spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, urged Netanyahu to announce his acceptance of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a settlement freeze and "a return to serious negotiations."
Half a million Jews live in settlement blocks built in the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem, areas where, with the Gaza Strip, Palestinians want to establish a state.
U.S. ENVOY
Obama's Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, is to begin a visit to Israel and the West Bank on Monday. Western and Israeli officials said the White House was formulating a blueprint for a renewed peace process that could be presented early next month.
Without giving a date, Netanyahu said "Next week, I will make a major diplomatic speech in which I will present to the citizens of Israel our principles for achieving peace and security."
Israel Radio said he would deliver the address on June 14. A Netanyahu spokesman said he could not confirm the date.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, head of the center-left Labour Party in Netanyahu's government, held out the possibility of a softening in Israel's position on Palestinian statehood in return for an easing of U.S. pressure over settlements.
Referring to a 2003, U.S.-endorsed peace plan, Barak told reporters the government should declare it is "committed to all previous agreements signed by previous governments, including the 'road map', whose goal is two states for two peoples." Continued...
Source: Reuters