(TROOPS, FORCES, MILITANT, SECURITY, THEIR, IRAQI)
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq takes a major step toward reasserting its sovereignty on Tuesday when U.S. combat troops hand urban areas over to its relatively untested police and soldiers.
Will the end of one aspect of the "surge" strategy -- the ramped-up deployment of U.S. forces in militant strongholds that helped drive al Qaeda and other fighters underground -- lead to a collapse in security?
WILL VIOLENCE SOAR?
It is highly likely that insurgents will increase their attacks following the departure of U.S. combat troops from city centers, both U.S. and Iraqi officials say.
Some militant groups may want to create the impression that they deserve the credit for driving out the occupation forces.
The fact that the partial withdrawal has been dictated by a bilateral security pact agreed last year between the United States and Iraq is immaterial to them.
Some of the insurgents may also think Iraq and its population will be more vulnerable once the Americans pull back to their bases, and that they have a better chance of reigniting widespread sectarian bloodshed through massive bombings.
There have been indications, however, that insurgent and militant groups have lost the capacity to keep up the momentum.
While the past month saw two of the deadliest bombings in more than a year, the overall number of incidents has plunged, and major attacks are followed by weeks of relative calm.
WHAT IS AT STAKE POLITICALLY?
If Iraqi security forces fail to protect the Iraqi people from escalating attacks, Shi`ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is likely to suffer politically.
He is staking his hopes for a second term after a parliamentary poll next January on his ability to claim credit for a sharp fall in violence over the past 18 months.
Maliki has called the withdrawal a great victory as Iraq tries to shake off stigma of occupation, and he has declared June 30, "National Sovereignty Day," a public holiday.
Analysts say he has essentially backed himself into a corner by exalting the occasion -- if violence soars it will be politically unpalatable to call on the U.S. military for help.
The prime minister`s stance may also dictate commanders` behavior on the ground. They may be loathe to call on U.S. troops or air cover, no matter how much it is needed, out of fear of being punished by their superiors for apparent weakness. Continued...
Original article
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