Isolated North Korea could avoid U.N. pinch: analysts

U.N. approves North Korea sanctions
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By Jon Herskovitz
SEOUL (Reuters) - U.N. Security Council sanctions imposed on North Korea for its nuclear test may do little to change the ways of the reclusive state and could prod Pyongyang to stoke tensions with military moves, analysts said on Saturday.
The sanctions resolution approved on Friday banned all weapons exports from North Korea and most arms imports into the state. It authorized U.N. member states to inspect North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy any goods transported in violation of the sanctions.
"The success of financial sanctions depends heavily on how far China and the United States are willing to go to pressure North Korea," said Jeong Hyung-gon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
Studies have shown that U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea for missile testing and its only prior nuclear test in 2006 had almost no impact, while its meager trade actually increased due to lax enforcement of those measures.
The isolated country's $2 billion annual trade with neighboring China, equal to about 10 percent of the North's annual GDP, is its most important economic relationship. Beijing has wanted to avoid any measures that could cause the North's economy to collapse and lead to chaos on its border.
Two senior diplomats negotiating the resolution told Reuters on condition of anonymity the Chinese had never really clarified whether they intended to implement the new sanctions resolution.
China's U.N. ambassador, Zhang Yesui, said the resolution showed the "firm opposition" of the international community to North Korea's nuclear ambitions, but he urged countries to exercise caution when inspecting North Korean cargo.
"Under no circumstances should there be use or threat of the use of force," Zhang said.
MISSILES ON THE HORIZON
A senior South Korean official said that North Korea may possibly respond to U.N. punishment with "another nuclear test and maybe more missiles."
"They will never, never give up their nuclear weapons," said the official who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject matter.
North Korea has raised tension in the region in the past months by test-firing missiles, restarting a plant to produce arms-grade plutonium and holding the May 25 nuclear test, which put it closer to having a working nuclear bomb.
South Korea's defense minister said this week the North's saber rattling is to build internal support for leader Kim Jong-il, 67, as he prepares for succession in Asia's only communist dynasty.
Since Kim took over in 1994 and launched his guiding "military first" policy, the North's economy has grown weaker and an estimated 1 million people died in a famine in the late 1990s.
North Korea has been readying a missile that could hit U.S. territory for a test launch by as early as this month and could also test fire mid-range missiles that can strike all of South Korea and most of Japan, South Korean officials have said. Continued...
Source: Reuters